Research


Peer Reviewed Publications


Setting an example: political leaders’ cues and health behavior in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, Latin American Policy (2021), with Bruno Morando and Luciano Ayala Cantu

Abstract How do political leaders’ cues affect citizen behavior regarding a new and complex issue? We address this question in the context of the early stages of the Covid‐19 pandemic in Mexico, using electoral outcomes and municipal‐level mobility data from Facebook’s Movement Range Maps. In March 2020, Mexico’s president downplayed constantly the severity of the coming health crisis by continuing his political rallies throughout the country and encouraging people to leave their homes. Using an event‐study analysis, we find that, after the first press conference where his government declared mobility restrictions were not yet necessary, on March 13, citizens’ geographic mobility in pro‐government municipalities was higher than in cities where support for the president was less strong. Our results are robust to several specifications and definitions of political support. Moreover, we find evidence that our results are driven by cities with higher media penetration, which implies that they can be attributed to people’s reactions to the president’s cues rather than to systematic differences in the preferences of his supporters.



Working Papers


When Crime Tears Communities Apart: Social Capital and Organised Crime, with Francesca Calamunci

Most recent draft

Status: Revised and Resubmitted at The Journal of Law, Economics & Organization

Abstract What is the long-term effect of organised crime presence on civic capital? By leveraging novel tax compliance and organised crime data, this study investigates this question within the Italian landscape. We exploit the forced resettlement law that compelled organised crime members living in the South of Italy to resettle in the Centre-North area of the country. Employing difference-in-differences reduced form and two-stage least squares estimation strategies, estimates reveal that sustained exposure to mafia presence reduces TV tax compliance. Exploring possible mechanisms, we find that municipalities exposed to the forced resettlement laws show more firms in strategic sectors for organised crime infiltration, and more episodes of extortion and labour racketeering. Moreover, heterogeneous analysis shows that municipalities with a younger population, less home ownership, and more readership drive the main effects, while provincial migration does not.


Does Green Re-industrialization Pay off? Impacts on Employment, Wages and Productivity, with Filippo Bontadini and Francesco Vona

Most recent draft

Status: submitted

Abstract What are the consequences of green industrialization on the labour market and industry dynamics? This paper tackles and quantifies this question by employing observable and reliable data on green manufacturing production for an extensive set of EU countries and 4-digit manufacturing industries for over a decade. First, at a descriptive level, this paper documents that green production is mostly concentrated in a few countries and industries. Moreover, potentially green industries outperform the others in terms of employment, average wages, value added and productivity. Second, when controlling for other drivers of the labour market and industry dynamics in the econometric analysis, it finds that employment and value added grow faster in potentially green sectors, particularly at the intensive margin. In contrast, average wages and labour productivity remain unchanged. Then, to purge the analysis from possible endogeneity, this paper employs two shift-share instruments. These econometric exercises corroborate the previous findings. An increase in 1 million€ of sold green production is associated with an increase of 0.03% in employment and value added, respectively. The analysis is extended with different heterogeneity exercises and robustness checks.


Vaccines on the Move and the War on Polio, with Laura Muñoz Blanco

Most recent draft

Status: submitted

Abstract The rising number of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) presents new challenges for vaccine distribution and the spread of diseases. How do forcibly displaced population inflows affect infectious diseases incidence in host communities? Can a policy intervention that vaccinates children during their migration mitigate the impacts? To answer these questions, we examine the Pakistani mass internal displacement from the conflict-affected Federally Administered Tribal Areas in 2008. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we compare new polio cases in districts near and far from the conflict zone before and after 2008. The spatial distribution of districts relative to the historical region of Pashtunistan allows us to design a sample of comparable units. We show that a standard deviation increase in predicted IDP inflow leads to a rise in the new polio cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Poorer vaccination levels among IDP compared to native children in host communities are one of the main mechanisms. Implementing a vaccination policy targeting IDP children during their migration journey helps bridge the vaccination gap, with important welfare implications.



Work in progress


Simultaneous elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from Italy

Status: review of final draft

Abstract This paper investigates the impact that the simultaneity of national and local elections has on the local electoral stage, in terms of civic and political participation, political competition and electoral results. Methodologically, I employ a difference-in-differences design that exploits the staggered nature of the local elections in Italy, where some municipalities experience the simultaneity, while the rest do not. Voters’ participation is positively impacted, with homogeneous effects along the gender dimension. Political participation mildly increases, while its competition is affected in an opposite way. Mayors winning in this simultaneous setting are more likely to have previous office experience. Lastly, using the simultaneity as a sample restriction, I document the existence of a split-ticket voting behaviour. In this regard, I find support for the divided government hypothesis as a mechanism.


The Local Job Multipliers of Green Re-industrialization, with Filippo Bontadini, Italo Colantone and Francesco Vona

Status: review of first draft

Abstract What are the job multipliers of the green manufacturing re-industrialization? We tackle this question by combining green manufacturing production data with regional employment shares of 2-digit manufacturing industries. This results in a measure of green manufacturing penetration, which we relate to regional employment in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in a long-difference model. To address endogeneity in regional green penetration, we exploit a shift-share instrument that exploits aggregate technological flows. Green penetration positively affects regional employment in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. These results are homogeneous along the regional skill level and the employment in manufacturing technology’s intensity. Instead, STEM professions’ presence unveils heterogeneous patterns. Further, we extend these findings by applying an alternative estimation strategy that exploits large shocks to green penetration and performing an empirical policy evaluation exercise by assessing the effectiveness of the Just Transition Fund programme. Lastly, we construct a similar brown penetration measure and identify region specialized in it. We find that they still benefit from a green expansion.


(Sub)National Identity and Tax Evasion, with Francesco Barilari, Francesca Calamunci and Diego Zambiasi

Status: writing first draft

Abstract This paper examines how subnational identity and political ideology shape tax compliance, focusing on the role of the Northern League in Italy. As a federalist and anti-establishment party, it has historically promoted narratives against national taxation. We analyze its impact on tax compliance by studying evasion of the national TV tax (RAI license fee), leveraging a staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) approach with the doubly-robust Callaway and Sant’Anna estimator. Our findings show that the mere participation of the Northern League in local elections significantly increases tax evasion of 0.22%, even in the absence of an electoral victory. To disentangle the underlying mechanisms, we first ask whether the effect is driven by populism or federalism, distinguishing between anti-establishment rhetoric and opposition to national taxation. Second, we examine media exposure, assessing how partisan TV and national newspaper exposure amplify tax resistance. Third, we consider grassroots mobilization, looking at how local anti-tax campaigns directly engage citizens. Finally, we analyze territorial identity and socioeconomic heterogeneity, exploring how regional ties and economic conditions shape responses.


Organised crime and human capital, within-city evidence from Italy

Status: resting