Setting an example: political leaders’ cues and health behavior in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, Latin American Policy (2021), with Bruno Morando and Luciano Ayala Cantu
Abstract: How do political leaders’ cues affect citizen behavior regarding a new and complex issue? We address this question in the context of the early stages of the Covid‐19 pandemic in Mexico, using electoral outcomes and municipal‐level mobility data from Facebook’s Movement Range Maps. In March 2020, Mexico’s president downplayed constantly the severity of the coming health crisis by continuing his political rallies throughout the country and encouraging people to leave their homes. Using an event‐study analysis, we find that, after the first press conference where his government declared mobility restrictions were not yet necessary, on March 13, citizens’ geographic mobility in pro‐government municipalities was higher than in cities where support for the president was less strong. Our results are robust to several specifications and definitions of political support. Moreover, we find evidence that our results are driven by cities with higher media penetration, which implies that they can be attributed to people’s reactions to the president’s cues rather than to systematic differences in the preferences of his supporters.
Simultaneous elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from Italy
(draft coming soon!)
Abstract: This paper investigates the impact that the simultaneity of national and local elections has on the local electoral stage, in terms of civic and political participation, political competition and electoral results. Methodologically, I employ a difference-in-differences design that exploits the staggered nature of the local elections in Italy, where some municipalities experience the simultaneity, while the rest do not. Voters’ participation is positively impacted, with homogeneous effects along the gender dimension. Political participation mildly increases, while its competition is affected in an opposite way. Mayors winning in this simultaneous setting are more likely to have previous office experience. Lastly, using the simultaneity as a sample restriction, I document the existence of a split-ticket voting behaviour. In this regard, I find support for the divided government hypothesis as a mechanism.
When Crime Tears Communities Apart: Social Capital and Organised Crime, with Francesca Calamunci
Abstract: What is the long-term effect of organised crime presence on social capital accumulation? By leveraging novel civic capital and organised crime data, this study investigates this question within the Italian landscape. In an instrumental variable (IV) setting, we exploit the forced resettlement law that compelled organised crime members living in the South of Italy to resettle in the Centre-North area. Using a granular measure of tax compliance as a proxy for civic awareness, we find evidence that sustained exposure to mafia presence depresses civic capital accumulation. Results are robust to a series of robustness checks, such as the use of an alternative IV strategy. The findings appear to be influenced by a change in population composition, and a higher tolerance of dishonest conduct, net of the composition change.
The Final Mile against Polio: Reaching the-Hard-to-Reach, with Laura Muñoz Blanco
Abstract: Disease eradication is the holy grail of all global health efforts. And, we are closer than ever to ending polio, but the increasing number of internally displaced people (IDP) could pose new challenges. What are the impacts of IDP inflows on host communities’ polio incidence? To tackle this question, we use the mass displacement of the population from the conflict-affected Federally Administered Tribal Areas (F.A.T.A.) to other districts in Pakistan between 2008 and 2022. In a difference-in-differences approach, we compare the new polio cases in districts closer and farther away from the F.A.T.A. border before and after the conflict onset in 2008. Additionally, we exploit the spatial distribution of districts with respect to the pre-colonial region of Pashtunistan to define the sample. The results show that an increase of one standard deviation in predicted inflows results in 0.002 additional polio cases per 100,000 inhabitants, corresponding to 30% of the mean incidence. There are two underlying mechanisms: low prevention (insufficient vaccine opportunities for IDP children) and precarious health conditions in host communities (overpopulated communities and the congestion of health services).
Green industrialization and local job multipliers, with Filippo Bontadini, Italo Colantone and Francesco Vona
Green specialization and labour market outcomes in EU manufacturing industries, with Filippo Bontadini and Francesco Vona
Organised crime and human capital, within-city evidence from Italy