Peer Reviewed Publications
The Civic Side of Tax Compliance: Evidence from
Italy, with
Francesca
Calamunci
Economics
letters (2025)
Abstract
This study validates TV fee compliance as a proxy for civic capital in
Italy. Using municipality-level data, we show that it strongly
correlates with traditional social capital measures such as voluntary
associations, referenda, and European elections turnout. The analysis
confirms its reliability both at municipal and provincial levels. TV fee
compliance provides a scalable, objective, and timely indicator,
particularly useful for researchers to examine the socio-economic
dynamics of civic capital and its implications for institutional
performance and economic development.
Setting an example: political leaders’ cues and health
behavior in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in
Mexico, with
Bruno
Morando and
Luciano
Ayala Cantu
Latin
American Policy (2021)
Abstract
How do political leaders’ cues affect citizen behavior regarding a new
and complex issue? We address this question in the context of the early
stages of the Covid‐19 pandemic in Mexico, using electoral outcomes and
municipal‐level mobility data from Facebook’s Movement Range Maps. In
March 2020, Mexico’s president downplayed constantly the severity of the
coming health crisis by continuing his political rallies throughout the
country and encouraging people to leave their homes. Using an
event‐study analysis, we find that, after the first press conference
where his government declared mobility restrictions were not yet
necessary, on March 13, citizens’ geographic mobility in pro‐government
municipalities was higher than in cities where support for the president
was less strong. Our results are robust to several specifications and
definitions of political support. Moreover, we find evidence that our
results are driven by cities with higher media penetration, which
implies that they can be attributed to people’s reactions to the
president’s cues rather than to systematic differences in the
preferences of his supporters.
Working Papers
When Crime Tears Communities Apart: Social Capital and
Organised Crime, with
Francesca
Calamunci
Most
recent draft
Status: Conditionally accepted at The Journal of Law, Economics
& Organization
Abstract
What is the long-term effect of organised crime presence on civic
capital? By leveraging novel tax compliance and organised crime data,
this study investigates this question within the Italian landscape. We
exploit the forced resettlement law that compelled organised crime
members living in the South of Italy to resettle in the Centre-North
area of the country. Employing difference-in-differences reduced form
and two-stage least squares estimation strategies, estimates reveal that
sustained exposure to mafia presence reduces TV tax compliance.
Exploring possible mechanisms, we find that municipalities exposed to
the forced resettlement laws show more firms in strategic sectors for
organised crime infiltration, and more episodes of extortion and labour
racketeering. Moreover, heterogeneous analysis shows that municipalities
with a younger population, less home ownership, and more readership
drive the main effects, while provincial migration does not.
Does Green Re-industrialization Pay off? Impacts on
Employment, Wages and Productivity, with
Filippo
Bontadini and
Francesco
Vona
Most
recent draft
Status: submitted
Abstract
What are the consequences of green industrialization on the labour
market and industry dynamics? This paper tackles and quantifies this
question by employing observable and reliable data on green
manufacturing production for an extensive set of EU countries and
4-digit manufacturing industries for over a decade. First, at a
descriptive level, this paper documents that green production is mostly
concentrated in a few countries and industries. Moreover, potentially
green industries outperform the others in terms of employment, average
wages, value added and productivity. Second, when controlling for other
drivers of the labour market and industry dynamics in the econometric
analysis, it finds that employment and value added grow faster in
potentially green sectors, particularly at the intensive margin. In
contrast, average wages and labour productivity remain unchanged. Then,
to purge the analysis from possible endogeneity, this paper employs two
shift-share instruments. These econometric exercises corroborate the
previous findings. An increase in 1 million€ of sold green production is
associated with an increase of 0.03% in employment and value added,
respectively. The analysis is extended with different heterogeneity
exercises and robustness checks.
Vaccines on the Move and the War on Polio,
with
Laura
Muñoz Blanco
Most
recent draft
Status: submitted
Abstract
The rising number of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs)
presents new challenges for vaccine distribution and the spread of
diseases. How do forcibly displaced population inflows affect infectious
diseases incidence in host communities? Can a policy intervention that
vaccinates children during their migration mitigate the impacts? To
answer these questions, we examine the Pakistani mass internal
displacement from the conflict-affected Federally Administered Tribal
Areas in 2008. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we compare
new polio cases in districts near and far from the conflict zone before
and after 2008. The spatial distribution of districts relative to the
historical region of Pashtunistan allows us to design a sample of
comparable units. We show that a standard deviation increase in
predicted IDP inflow leads to a rise in the new polio cases per 100,000
inhabitants. Poorer vaccination levels among IDP compared to native
children in host communities are one of the main mechanisms.
Implementing a vaccination policy targeting IDP children during their
migration journey helps bridge the vaccination gap, with important
welfare implications.
The Local Job Multipliers of Green
Re-industrialization, with
Filippo
Bontadini,
Italo
Colantone and
Francesco
Vona
Most
recent draft,
CESifo
working paper
Status: submitted
Abstract
What are the job multipliers of the green industrialization? We tackle
this question within EU regions over the period 2003-2017, building a
novel measure of green manufacturing penetration that combines green
production and regional employment data. We estimate local job
multipliers of green penetration in a long-difference model, using a
shift-share instrument that exploits plausibly exogenous changes in
non-EU green innovation. We find that a 3-years change in green
penetration per worker increases the employment-to-active population
ratio by 0.11 pp. The effect is: persistent both in manufacturing and
outside manufacturing; halved by agglomeration effects that increase the
labour market tightness; stronger for workers with high and
low-education; and present also in regions specialized in polluting
industries. When focusing on large shocks in a staggered DiD design, we
find ten times larger effects, particularly in earlier periods.