Peer Reviewed Publications
Setting an example: political leaders’ cues and health
behavior in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in
Mexico,
Latin
American Policy (2021), with
Bruno
Morando and
Luciano
Ayala Cantu
Abstract
How do political leaders’ cues affect citizen behavior regarding a new
and complex issue? We address this question in the context of the early
stages of the Covid‐19 pandemic in Mexico, using electoral outcomes and
municipal‐level mobility data from Facebook’s Movement Range Maps. In
March 2020, Mexico’s president downplayed constantly the severity of the
coming health crisis by continuing his political rallies throughout the
country and encouraging people to leave their homes. Using an
event‐study analysis, we find that, after the first press conference
where his government declared mobility restrictions were not yet
necessary, on March 13, citizens’ geographic mobility in pro‐government
municipalities was higher than in cities where support for the president
was less strong. Our results are robust to several specifications and
definitions of political support. Moreover, we find evidence that our
results are driven by cities with higher media penetration, which
implies that they can be attributed to people’s reactions to the
president’s cues rather than to systematic differences in the
preferences of his supporters.
Working Papers
When Crime Tears Communities Apart: Social Capital and
Organised Crime, with
Francesca
Calamunci
Most
recent draft
Status: Revised and Resubmitted at The Journal of Law, Economics
& Organization
Abstract
What is the long-term effect of organised crime presence on civic
capital? By leveraging novel tax compliance and organised crime data,
this study investigates this question within the Italian landscape. We
exploit the forced resettlement law that compelled organised crime
members living in the South of Italy to resettle in the Centre-North
area of the country. Employing difference-in-differences reduced form
and two-stage least squares estimation strategies, estimates reveal that
sustained exposure to mafia presence reduces TV tax compliance.
Exploring possible mechanisms, we find that municipalities exposed to
the forced resettlement laws show more firms in strategic sectors for
organised crime infiltration, and more episodes of extortion and labour
racketeering. Moreover, heterogeneous analysis shows that municipalities
with a younger population, less home ownership, and more readership
drive the main effects, while provincial migration does not.
Does Green Re-industrialization Pay off? Impacts on
Employment, Wages and Productivity, with
Filippo
Bontadini and
Francesco
Vona
Most
recent draft
Status: submitted
Abstract
What are the consequences of green industrialization on the labour
market and industry dynamics? This paper tackles and quantifies this
question by employing observable and reliable data on green
manufacturing production for an extensive set of EU countries and
4-digit manufacturing industries for over a decade. First, at a
descriptive level, this paper documents that green production is mostly
concentrated in a few countries and industries. Moreover, potentially
green industries outperform the others in terms of employment, average
wages, value added and productivity. Second, when controlling for other
drivers of the labour market and industry dynamics in the econometric
analysis, it finds that employment and value added grow faster in
potentially green sectors, particularly at the intensive margin. In
contrast, average wages and labour productivity remain unchanged. Then,
to purge the analysis from possible endogeneity, this paper employs two
shift-share instruments. These econometric exercises corroborate the
previous findings. An increase in 1 million€ of sold green production is
associated with an increase of 0.03% in employment and value added,
respectively. The analysis is extended with different heterogeneity
exercises and robustness checks.
Vaccines on the Move and the War on Polio,
with
Laura
Muñoz Blanco
Most
recent draft
Status: submitted
Abstract
The rising number of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs)
presents new challenges for vaccine distribution and the spread of
diseases. How do forcibly displaced population inflows affect infectious
diseases incidence in host communities? Can a policy intervention that
vaccinates children during their migration mitigate the impacts? To
answer these questions, we examine the Pakistani mass internal
displacement from the conflict-affected Federally Administered Tribal
Areas in 2008. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we compare
new polio cases in districts near and far from the conflict zone before
and after 2008. The spatial distribution of districts relative to the
historical region of Pashtunistan allows us to design a sample of
comparable units. We show that a standard deviation increase in
predicted IDP inflow leads to a rise in the new polio cases per 100,000
inhabitants. Poorer vaccination levels among IDP compared to native
children in host communities are one of the main mechanisms.
Implementing a vaccination policy targeting IDP children during their
migration journey helps bridge the vaccination gap, with important
welfare implications.
Work in progress
Simultaneous elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from
Italy
Status: review of final draft
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact that the simultaneity of national and
local elections has on the local electoral stage, in terms of civic and
political participation, political competition and electoral results.
Methodologically, I employ a difference-in-differences design that
exploits the staggered nature of the local elections in Italy, where
some municipalities experience the simultaneity, while the rest do not.
Voters’ participation is positively impacted, with homogeneous effects
along the gender dimension. Political participation mildly increases,
while its competition is affected in an opposite way. Mayors winning in
this simultaneous setting are more likely to have previous office
experience. Lastly, using the simultaneity as a sample restriction, I
document the existence of a split-ticket voting behaviour. In this
regard, I find support for the divided government hypothesis as a
mechanism.
The Local Job Multipliers of Green
Re-industrialization, with
Filippo
Bontadini,
Italo
Colantone and
Francesco
Vona
Status: review of first draft
(Sub)National Identity and Tax Evasion,
with
Francesco
Barilari,
Francesca
Calamunci and
Diego
Zambiasi
Status: writing first draft
Organised crime and human capital, within-city evidence from
Italy
Status: resting